The
departure of the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) from the National
Alliance came as a shock especially when the PAT chairman attended
the NA meeting with the president the day before announcing his
decision. Well Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri emphasised on an amicable
departure from the NA with no grievances or ill feeling on his
part or the NA. The reason for leaving the alliance according to
Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri was the failure of the General and European
councils of the party to ratify the decision of the CWC on joining
the National Alliance. The reasons being that the party considered
the role given to PAT in the alliance, was not consistent to its
size and political standing, especially with the major positions
of president and general secretary eluding PAT. The benefit to be
gained by PAT by joining such an alliance was unclear to many.
Although Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri insisted the sole reason on leaving the
NA was due his party's willingness to do so, he did shed light on
the fact that the promises made to him on how the NA was to
develop did not materialise. The specific promises he referred to
in his press conference were regarding the alliance increasing in
number to over a dozen, with confused messages being passed to him
regarding the formation of the NA leadership.
Well from a neutral point of view it seems as though the NA never
made any inroads in getting itself established or ready to fight
the general election. There were many suspicions and questions
flying around about the NA's peculiar formation and stature. The
PML(Q) was also tipped to join the NA at a later stage but that
also never happened and always looked unlikely. It is now clear
that PML(Q) will be taking a solo flight as it has made it clear
that it will not be joining any Grand National Alliance nor
joining hands with any other party. Baring in mind that both the
PML(Q) and NA were allegedly formed and are supported by the
government, it raises the question of why the government has
formed two different entities which are apparently both fully
supportive of the government. Especially when they will not be
merging to form a Grand National Alliance. There are several
proposed theories on the reasons behind the formation of the NA
existent in various political circles.
One of them is that the aim of the NA was to box in various
parties so that they could be curtailed and bound, making the way
clear for the PML (Q). Well, as the NA is an election alliance,
member parties lose their independence to a great degree as they
are now bound by the rules and regulations set down by the NA. A
prime example of this is the dissatisfaction of the Pakistan Awami
Tehreek (PAT) and consequently its departure from the NA. Thus,
PAT's open declaration that the NA was trying to limit its role
supports the apparent claim that the NA was formed to deliberately
curtail member parties.
Regarding the PML(Q), with all member parties of the NA ceasing to
have independent roles and having to adhere to NA policy which,
apparently was not to oppose the PML(Q) then the claim that the NA
was clearing the way for the PML(Q) would be justified.
Another proposed theory on the formation of the NA is that it was
merely created to give Farooq Laghari a suitable platform to
promote himself as an able politician as his Millat Party is not a
large enough party to achieve such a purpose. Well, although
Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi is the president of the NA it is clear to all
that he was given the slot due to the inability of member parties
to agree on any one else, or as PAT would put it, he wasforcefully
given the slot to deprive PAT from gaining the post. Well there
have been statements of Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri in the press over the
past couple of weeks saying that his party will not be allowed to
be used as a step ladder by anyone. May be these were clear hints
that he was aware of this hidden strategy of using member parties
to promote Farooq Laghari placing him in a position to be inducted
into the next government.
Another theory is that the
government is working on a multidimensional plan with many
contingency measures being taken into consideration. As part of
this plan it is said that Imran Khan's Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has
been deliberately kept out of the NA so that the government can
turn to it if need be as a contingency measure. |
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About
Writer:
Mr. Jawed Iqbal, is an independent writer and a
political analyst. His articles appear in printed and
electronic media of Pakistan
eMail : JAWEDS_WORLD@HOTMAIL.COM |
Well the departure of PAT from
the NA has been a visible setback for the government as Maj. Gen.
Ihtishaam Zameer, chief of the political wing of the ISI, has been
sacked primarily due to the departure of PAT from the NA and the
failure of the PML to unite, which were both government sponsored
projects. Such a major step by the government proves that the
above mentioned theories may have truth in them. The sudden
departure of Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi to London has been as
questionable as his arrival. He probably thought the NA has now
lost any impotence it had, thus, apparently abandoning it.
Well obviously PAT thought long and hard on leaving the NA but
finally took the decision believing it to be in its best interest.
The options available to PAT on its future course of action seem
to be three-fold. The most viable and attractive option would be
to form an election alliance with the PML(Q) as was indicated by
Dr Qadri in his press conference. Well both parties did announce
an election alliance following the local elections but nothing
productive has materialised mainly due to PAT joining the NA, as
stated by PML(Q) sources. Well it is clear that the PML(Q) is the
government’s first choice especially after the shocking
revelations of senior government officials instructing Nazims to
fully participate in the PML(Q) election campaign. The formation
of such an alliance would all in all depend on the willingness of
the PML(Q) but as it is widely perceived in the public, the PML(Q)
is the governments puppet, thus depriving it from their support.
In order to ensure its victory in the election, the PML(Q) will
need to form such election alliances. PAT seems to be a favorable
option as it claims to have a decisive vote bank. The second
option available to PAT would be to form an election alliance with
opposition parties. Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri has repeatedly said that he
will prefer to be in the opposition rather than a government,
which is not giving PAT its due share in power. Currently the
opposition seems to be leaderless as leaders of both the PML(N)
and PPP are in self exile. Thus, PPP and PML(N) workers and
supporters desperately need a leader who can lead them to success
in the October elections. So the proposition of leading the
opposition is a tempting one for Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri, as everyone is
aware of the progress of the Pakistan Awami Itihad (PAI) under the
leadership of Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri. The third clear option available
for PAT is to take a solo flight, making seat adjustments in every
constituency according to the local political scenario. The recent
co-operation between Baigum Abida Hussain and Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri in
their respective seats is clear evidence of this strategy already
being in operation. It seems as though such co-operation and seat
adjustments will play a major role in the coming elections
especially for PAT.
Whether PAT has gained or not on leaving the NA, the government on
the other hand will be counting its losses as PAT's departure from
the NA concludes the government's failure with regards to the NA.
On the other handgovernment plans regarding PML(Q) and the
unification of the PML have all but failed. Both of these
developments have raised serious talk within government circles
that the elections will be postponed by a couple of months, as the
government's plans in maneuvering its desired entities into power
have suffered severe setbacks. The course which PAT decides to
take will clear the air of uncertainty and confusion regarding the
elections and the post election setup. Time will judge whether
PAT's departure and the consequent failure of the NA, is in fact
'another nail in the government's coffin'.
This
article published in;
Local Media
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Another nail in the coffin